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S&P 500 Futures (/ES) Market Profile for Thursday, 11/16/2017.
- Value Area High – 2569.00
- Point of Control – 2563.75
- Value Area Low – 2562.25
- Pivot Point – 2564.00
Good Morning, $ES_F as of this writing at around 7:00 am EST, the market would be opening Out of Balance & above VAH of 2569.00. Overnight inventory in my eyes is pretty much 92% net to long side with futures currently up 8.50 points as of this writing. Keep an eye on GAP Rules, they may be in play???
Things to note this morning, S&P Futures from yesterday was a little Neutral & one could give weight to either side IMHO. Today, I see a Range-Bound market as buyer’s & seller’s digest over price discovery. My Trade Plan for a “Range-Bound Market” is simple stupid. Buy the low, sell the high, don’t fuck w/ the middle, & focus on failures using the “2-Try Rule” until I see enough strength from a successful breakout-pullback to create a new trend.
Going into today (after looking at price action from overnight), I believe levels that need to hold today for Buyer’s to stay in control today are an Initial Support Level of 2562.50 ish & needing to hold/stay above 2568.50 ish level. For the Seller’s, I think as long as price is above 2568.50 ish going into today, not much chance for the Seller’s. “If Aggressive”, your looking for Buyer Failure (if noticeable) at today’s Key Resistance Level’s above on Team Day Trader Worksheet to sell short. Otherwise I would look for price to break below 2568.50 & hold a pullback before selling this market short. So let’s recap, dips should be buy-able till price below 2568.50 ish, below gets vulnerable & a chance for Seller’s to take back control.
Your focus should be on levels & where value develops. Levels to watch price action today are going to be the reaction around 2571.75, & if price closes above 2575.50 or below 2562.50.
Don’t forget, **Sequence = Failure, into Strength, into Pullbacks, and back to retest the Highs or Lows. CONTEXT is extremely important. Do not trade any setup mechanically and expect to have good results. Always judge the strength of any directional move in terms of market internals, overall pattern, tempo, & where the current range sits in relation to prior areas of balance.
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